The Details
When: Sunday October 3rd.
Time: UCI is announcing a tentative 10:00AM (Australia) start times, but that is subject to change.
Coverage: Here in the US, Universal Sports has announced coverage of all World Championship events (Men's / Women's, TT, & Road). Times and schedule have not been posted. Can't say that I am head over heels about either their coverage or their scheduling, but getting coverage at all has to be a huge step in the right direction. Other viewing options include video stream etc.
Where: Melbourne to Geelong Australia
Distance: 262km (163 miles)
Circuit Distance: 11 x 16km loops
Course Description:
(Part I. Melbourne to Geelong)
The course is a tough circuit that has been called by many a strong man sprinters course. The racers leave Melbourne traveling south along the coast along a fairly flat route for the first 80km. This section will probably see some lesser players going in the break and be given quite a long leash. After the first 80km, the riders will enter Geelong and begin their 11 lap circuit course.
(Part II. Geelong Circuit x 11 Laps)
After reaching the circuit, the race is bound to start heating-up. The roads narrow on the circuit, so look for teams to really start to apply pressure and move their men up to the front. In addition to narrowing, the circuit houses some brutal climbs that will really start to sting the legs of the riders after the 5th or so time up them.
The Not So Nitty-Gritty: I have heard this course described as a sprinter's course, but after seeing McEwen's video and looking at the little kick at the end, I have to rule out straight up sprinters. I think it would be smart to look at the riders who have been successful at Flanders, LBL, and even Milan San Remo. With that in mind, I throw out the riders I like (starting with the ones I feel most likely to win), which are the same names everyone else is throwing out, with some of my thoughts and questions.
Freire: This man already has 3 world titles. I'll say that again, Freire has won the world championships 3 times already. Given his strength, this is a rider that is perfectly suited to this course. He has been out of competition due to a sinus infection and subsequent operation, but if history tells us anything, it is that he knows how to prepare for 1 day world events. Another point Freire's way is that Rodriguez has pulled out of the race, making Freire will be the sole leader of the Spanish team. He is not a lead out kind of guy, but it never hurts to have some team mates willing to pull back a break.
Gilbert: Anyone who watched the Vuelta knows that this man is on fires. Since the world course was named, he has been a favorite in many people's eyes. The question is, will there be anything left to burn come Oct 3rd? There is no doubt that him and his beloved big ring are going to be a factor in this race, but how much of a factor? Gilbert brings with him some strong Belgian riders - one or two them being outside chances themselves.
Pozzato: On the other end of the spectrum from Gilbert, we have Pozzato. Pozzato has had an incredibly quite year with only one win in the Giro that I can remember. Unlike Gilbert, Pozzato's Vuelta showed a rider who still had a ways to go before anyone would declare him "on form". If Gilbert did too much, did Pozzato do too little? Pozzato did such cool things with the Italian national jersey, I can't help but want to see what his world stripped kit would look like. (Given that Italy's national coach, Bettini, has already dedicated the win to recently deceased former coach Ballerini, I am sure Pozzato has already designed it.)
Farrar: Not to be confused with Freire, Farrar has never won a world championship, but many are claiming that he can. Looking back at the Vuelta, we have seen that he can be their at the end of hilly stages (stage 19 comes to mind), but still often falls short (again, stage 19 comes to mind). He will have a top selve team (in fact 3 riders are coming with him from Garmin which can only help) trying to get him to where he needs to be, but if there is a select break, I don't see him in it.
Hushovd: Everything about the way this man is riding this year says world champion to me. He can take a sprint, but only from a very select group that has been whittle down by hard terrain - is that not this course? I don't know if this will help or hurt, but with Hushovd comes Boasson-Hagen on the Norwegian team. Hushovd is a strong man with tons of experience, but I am not sure Hagen will surrender to him if they come to line together.
Boasson-Hagen: Like Hushovd, Hagen could do some damage on this course. He is even skipping the TT this year to focus solely on the road race. From watching Tour of Eneco and the two recent Canadian races, I have seen him come so close only to go too soon or with not enough. Lots of close calls and I think this might be another.
Evans: Coming back for the double is Evans. He has home court advantage and a strong team supporting him. If things come down to a select group, as I have thought they might, I would not be surprised to see him in it and probably attacking out of it (repeat from last year?). Given the short punchy climbs and the finishing straight, I don't think it is not a question of whether Evans will be there, but who else is with him.
Cavendish: No one likes to count Cavendish out, so I wont. However, looking at the course, I am going to say this is too hard to Cavendish, including the up hill finish. He proved everyone wrong in Milan San Remo in 2009, but this course is a different beast - same length, but more unrelenting in my mind with more at stake for the other candidates.
Cancellara: Last but not least is Cancellara. The second half of this man's season has seen some ups and downs - especially with all the recent news - but he has decided to race. A Cancellara on form could make it over the climbs with the riders, only to motor away from them on the finishing straights. But given what we have seen from the Vuelta, I am inclined to doubt this.
As McEwen said, "the more I think about this course, the more people I can see winning it." There are tons and tons of names that comes to mind, these are just a few I wanted to give my thoughts on. Some others who I have thought about are Sagan, Boom, Sanchez, Greipel, Martin . . . the list could go on. Here is a list of all registered riders (not recently updated) from the UCI. Check it out and come up with your own picks. Extra points for dark horse favorites . . .
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